Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is the most widespread sexually transmitted infection in the world. Highly contagious, it is estimated that over 80% of sexually active men and women will be infected with this virus at least once in their lifetime. This infection can cause genital and skin warts, and in the most severe cases, cancers.

Scientists use mathematical models based on equations to study the spread of infectious diseases. However, since the risk of HPV infection depends on individuals’ sexual behavior, this research proposes a more advanced mathematical model that takes these specific behaviors into account to better predict the infection’s progression. The developed model allows for tracking the progression of the infection in both men and women, considering their vaccination status. It shows that even small variations in how the virus is transmitted can significantly impact the development of an HPV epidemic.

Thanks to this mathematical approach, we gain a clearer understanding of how the virus spreads. This can help design more effective vaccination strategies, considering uncertainties related to vaccine coverage and acceptance rates, as well as treatment methods better suited to the different strains of the virus.